Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 88382.232586 93218.531772 98049.222152 103232.983029 108634.680553 114094.119441 120025.494210
2024-12-22 79835.398234 87207.307654 94773.567968 103109.201792 112023.945107 121261.526891 131546.415348
2024-12-29 74991.619260 84198.702825 93850.831826 104702.098527 116539.242430 129037.715687 143209.584324
2025-01-05 70903.327691 81475.096273 92756.622688 105655.202022 119957.028701 135291.464161 152938.139179
2025-01-12 66987.835537 78579.048492 91144.683357 105725.671744 122124.484844 139942.480719 160709.678855
2025-01-19 63500.167619 75900.687846 89537.123497 105573.230047 123839.692594 143922.976130 167595.235411
2025-01-26 61702.055943 74987.945541 89783.225203 107386.753777 127662.275325 150183.852491 176988.729310
2025-02-02 60110.218202 74192.000812 90057.846223 109139.765908 131342.759365 156236.804158 186127.387364
2025-02-09 58136.790114 72835.996167 89584.771388 109937.640545 133850.069043 160899.314911 193648.846658
2025-02-16 55828.260468 70973.672662 88421.263413 109836.893690 135234.618953 164209.843839 199571.760316
2025-02-23 54058.678598 69673.329038 87847.136440 110363.329285 137299.013273 168271.486896 206348.753658
2025-03-02 52213.481140 68202.812944 86999.735226 110499.597350 138848.493876 171693.384419 212356.877491
2025-03-09 51100.578268 67611.232934 87207.318447 111918.019755 141965.026857 177026.574550 220721.702401
2025-03-16 49144.132785 65909.241687 86008.382823 111582.984983 142938.929141 179800.195093 226053.245562
2025-03-23 48309.976190 65573.074803 86454.023075 113235.151336 146309.560582 185443.742344 234841.983248
2025-03-30 47217.352204 64864.580571 86400.382573 114240.220823 148870.181878 190107.813705 242467.038438
2025-04-06 45746.109060 63619.964310 85630.550173 114313.086986 150251.729564 193324.641437 248337.193197
2025-04-13 44247.550109 62289.455578 84706.579450 114150.298778 151306.858583 196121.145586 253687.380120
2025-04-20 43784.844223 62285.818833 85450.173851 116080.974715 154970.928633 202127.374879 262997.180573
2025-04-27 43322.683782 62260.755777 86150.113668 117946.928805 158555.247868 208050.229990 272238.235608
2025-05-04 42442.897623 61651.259922 86071.174302 118796.092613 160845.193162 212370.663928 279515.235770
2025-05-11 41197.125269 60514.418462 85273.556235 118688.871900 161897.387579 215136.831000 284861.339216
2025-05-18 40287.468169 59802.755308 85007.175763 119249.116266 163787.815494 218948.306185 291522.584786